The media often comments that this has been one of the longest US economic expansions since World War II – implying that a recession must be in the making.
But we also know this expansion has been very different, as it has occurred with one of the slowest rates of growth.
Rather than measuring the expansion in length of time (“number of months”), we took a look at total growth (expressed as a percentage) between recessions. The average growth is about 24%. We are currently at around 17.4%, which would indicate that we have some room left to grow.
While we are also being cautious - “defensively opportunistic” as we like to say - McKinley believes the fundamentals of residential housing portend further opportunities in this space.
*Souce: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, April 7, 2017.